What Is a Good Win Rate in Crypto Trading? (Why 50% Is Not the Answer)

"What is your win rate?" is the first question people ask about a trader or a signals service. It is a reasonable question, but the number on its own is close to meaningless. A trader who wins 80% of the time can lose money, and one who wins 35% of the time can make it.

What win rate is

Win rate = winning trades ÷ total trades

Win ten out of twenty trades and it is 50%. It tells you how often you are right. It says nothing about how much you make when right or lose when wrong.

The missing half: how big the wins and losses are

Two traders, both taking 10 trades:

• Trader A wins 8 and loses 2. Each win makes 1% and each loss costs 5%. Result: 8 × 1% − 2 × 5% = −2%.
• Trader B wins 4 and loses 6. Each win makes 3% and each loss costs 1%. Result: 4 × 3% − 6 × 1% = +6%.

Trader A has an 80% win rate and loses money. Trader B is wrong most of the time and comes out ahead. What matters is the relationship between the two, which is the risk-reward ratio.

Expectancy: the number that actually counts

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)

A positive number means that, on average, each trade adds to your account. Using Trader B's figures: (0.4 × 3%) − (0.6 × 1%) = 1.2% − 0.6% = +0.6% per trade.

What win rate you need

The win rate you need depends on your average win relative to your average loss:

Average win vs loss	Break-even win rate
0.5 to 1	67%
1 to 1	50%
2 to 1	33%
3 to 1	25%

If you risk 1 to make 2, a win rate of 40% is comfortably profitable before costs. If you risk 2 to make 1, even 60% is not enough.

Why very high win rates should make you suspicious

A very high win rate often comes from a specific trick: taking small profits quickly while letting losing trades run, or removing losers from the record. It feels great and hides the risk, because the rare large loss can erase many small wins.

This is why a service claiming that nearly all of its calls win deserves scepticism. It may be selectively reported, or it may be structured so that the one loss is enormous. See how to verify a signals track record.

What to ask about a win rate

When someone gives you one, ask:

1. Over how many trades? Ten trades prove almost nothing. A hundred means something.
2. Are all trades included, or only closed winners?
3. What was the average win and loss? Without this, the number is incomplete.
4. What were the entries and stops? Were the results possible to achieve in practice?
5. Can I check it? Dated, unedited and public.

For your own trading

Track your win rate, average win and average loss in your journal, and work out your expectancy monthly. Under about 30 trades the numbers are noisy, and 50 to 100 makes them more reliable. See what to track in a trading journal. Then improve the part that is weaker: usually the sizes, not the hit rate.

Why we do not headline a percentage

We do not lead with a single win-rate figure, because a number without the trades behind it cannot be checked. What we publish instead is every closed signal: entry, stop, target and result, with wins and losses side by side. 13 signals closed between 30 Jul 2026 and 21 Sep 2026 and work out the expectancy yourself. If you want to try the ideas above first, the open the terminal, free has a practice account where you can build your own record.